NFL Receiving Corps

We all know who the top receivers in the NFL are.  Calvin Johnson.  AJ Green.  Brandon Marshall.  Andre Johnson.  But how about these names?  Nate Burleson.  Mohamed Sanu.  Alshon Jeffery.  Keshawn Martin and DeAndre Hopkins.  Yeah you’ve probably heard of them, and maybe a couple of them are your sleeper picks.  But it is unbelievable how many NFL teams have maybe one elite receiving option, and then a whole lot of nothing after that.  Those first four elite receivers that I mentioned have absolutely no one to take pressure away from them, and except for possibly Megatron they don’t have really elite quarterbacks that could help them make up for lack of receiving depth.  That’s not to say they won’t be knockout star receivers this year.  They will (with the possible exception of Andre Johnson based on health issues), and it won’t matter if the whole defense is guarding them.  They are that good.  But whether you’re talking about maximizing receiver value in fantasy or just winning real-life NFL games, receiving depth is often the difference between a good team and a great team.  The Patriots don’t have it.  They’ll still be good.  But will they be great?  That largely depends on the health of Danny Amendola and Gronk.  As much as quarterback play and the ability to run and defensive toughness matter, a strong, deep receiving corps is really, really important and only a couple of teams in each conference have it.

Young Talent and... Excitement? In Baseball??

As the baseball season drags on and people start to get psyched about the NFL, I find myself completely amazed at how much super young talent there is in the Majors right now.  We all know that baseball’s popularity has dipped with the younger audiences when compared with football or basketball.  The games take longer and are more often meaningless, there is less excitement and suspense, star power doesn’t mean as much, the games don’t work as well on TV, ticket prices have gotten outrageously high, drug scandals… all these reasons and more have caused MLB to lose its undisputed spot as “America’s Sport.”  And yet between this year and last year, the number of young superstars that have broken into the league is astounding.  Just like the NFL had a ridiculous 6 out of 12 playoff teams last year helmed by a first or second year quarterback (including Christian Ponder despite his injury), really good and often playoff-bound teams in baseball are being led by rookies or sophomores throughout both leagues.  If you wanted to make a 25 and and under list, it would be unbelievably long with names like Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, Matt Harvey, Matt Moore, Justin Upton, and countless others who are just entering their prime and have at least 8-10 years of superstar, face of the franchise play ahead of them.  But I’ll go even deeper than that.  The following list includes 10 players, count ‘em 10, that are 22 years old or younger.  That’s right, if not for ungodly physical and athletic talent, these guys could be getting ready to graduate from college and test the job market.  Instead they’ll be making millions sooner rather than later.  22 years old means that a decade from now, they will be right in the heart of their prime playing years.  They won’t even hit those prime years for at least another 3 or 4 years.  And yet right now, this season they are putting up ridiculous numbers and leading their teams to playoff berths and, in some cases, probably World Series titles.  I can’t remember a time when there was this much incredibly young talent in the Majors.  99% of players aren’t even in the Big Leagues at 22.  So if you are a fan of one of these 10 teams, with 10 young superstars, you are excited about the future.  And that bodes well for the sport of baseball...

NFL Preseason Week 1 Recap

   One of two possible thoughts ran through your mind as week 1 of the NFL preseason went by: either you recognize that it is really crappy football on the whole and has zero impact on the regular season OR, like me, you were giddy with joy to see any football that doesn't involve Canada, no pads, or lingerie.  Actually, just Canada or no pads.  Let's keep the lingerie football league around for now....Regardless, a week of games came and went, so there must be some fantasy notes to take from it, right?  I believe so.  Also, there's nothing else to write about, so deal with it.  Check out my thoughts from each game, analyzing ANY (emphasis on any) possible fantasy prospects.

How The Sophomore Quarterbacks Will Do In 2013 (Guest Article by fanduel.com)

The 2012 NFL draft class was hyped going in as one of the best ever for quarterback prospects. Despite some growing pains every rookie goes through, the class did not disappoint. Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden all became starters for their respective teams. As people prepare for their fantasy football draft in 2013, how will the sophomores project?

Nappers and Wastes

    Sleepers and Busts isn't clever enough for this blog, so today I am going to present you with my nappers and wastes.  I know I know, maybe a little too clever this time, but I couldn't hold back.  We are witnessing the year of the torn ACL.  Every day we check ESPN, cowering in fear that one of our teams' players is today's news, and so far so good unless you're an Eagles, Ravens, Packers, Niners, Seahawks, or Patriots fan.  Okay, so something probably has happened to your team.  Sure that sucks for the real season, but your fantasy season still has hope! Players are going down left and right, but so far they haven't really been fantasy studs.  However, they are mid-level guys that actually will make a difference, even if they seem inconsequential.   Today I'm going to help you find undervalued players, or help you avoid overvalued ones.  Of course you then have to hope they don't get hurt, but hey, I can only do so much.  Let's start with the nappers.

Will's Winning Strategy

Since there’s not a whole lot else going on in the wide world of sports, I thought I would share my fantasy football draft strategy for this year, as Patrick recently did.  Mine will not be as extensive or well thought out, but I have done some mock drafts and this is what I have discovered.  It is by no means an all-encompassing strategy, since it depends on what position you are drafting from, what type of league, how many teams, and many other factors.  If you are in an annoyingly large 12-man league like I am with the first pick, you may not be able to wait all the way until the last pick in the sixth round, #72 to be exact, to get your starting quarterback.  Nonetheless, in the most typical 10-person standard league, here is how I think it breaks down.

NFL Injuries... Oh S--t

Injuries are always a problem in the NFL.  That’s part of the reason we love it.  And why so many people are on its case in recent years.  The sport is incredibly dangerous, especially at the highest level.  Despite all the safeguards that have ‘diluted’ the game, and made it easier to function as a receiver or a quarterback, if you play another position, it is really hard to stay healthy.  And even if you play one of those positions, you are pushing yourself so far physically that injuries are almost becoming more of an inevitability than a risk.  We’ve barely opened camps, and already key players are going down and hurting their teams’ chances, not to mention the many less-known players that we don’t even hear about.  It’s a tough problem and I’m not sure there’s a good solution.  But here are just a few of the most recent victims:

MLB Trade Deadline: NL Edition

This post sort of inadvertently turned into 2, so here is the NL half of my MLB Trade Deadline summary/homestretch prediction.  Some contenders (cough, Cardinals, cough cough, Pirates) were surprisingly quiet.  These clubs have insane amounts of talent in the minors, and yet decided not to make any major acquisitions.  There were rumors all over the place about whom they might go after, but nothing materialized.  I guess these NL Central powerhouses have the best records in the Majors, though, so if they think they can win from within who am I to argue?  All I know is that it made for a fairly boring Trade Deadline in the National League, but let’s look at what did happen.

MLB Trade Deadline: AL Edition

The MLB trade deadline – a lone beacon of hope in the otherwise barren sports landscape that is late July.  It wasn’t the most exciting deadline of all time, with a notoriously weak market for hitting, but there were plenty of important moves to keep fans on their toes.  As the calendar turns over to August 1^st, we are finally hitting that all-important homestretch of the baseball season.  However your team looks now, that’s pretty much how it’s going to look for the rest of this year and into the playoffs.  Sure there’s the potential for injuries.  And returns from injury.  And those pesky Biogenesis suspensions.  Ok, never mind, there is actually still a lot that could change.  But nonetheless, we can finally sort of maybe a little bit whittle down who is looking good going into the home stretch, who is not looking so good, and possibly make some sort of prediction.  Let’s break the big trades down…

Thoughts

   Reader(s), I want to apologize for being so quiet recently.  Aside from the fact that I divulged my fantasy strategy in roughly a week about two months before football begins, there just isn't too much going on in sports right now.  I hate to disregard the MLB as a whole, but nothing that interesting is happening other than the whole Biogenesis nonsense.  I don't have a particular topic I want to talk about today, but just a heap of thoughts that I need to put somewhere....probably right here.  Whether it be fixing my baseball predictions (some of which look so foolish right now), or discussing the imminent NFL pre-season, I have some thoughts you should read.

What's Luck Got to do with It?

    If you read my first post, Getting Things Started, you remember that I believe fantasy football is at least 50% luck.  We have little to no control over what actually happens on a given Sunday.  All we can do is start who we think will have the best days.  I wanted to write a short post here to prove to y'all that the best team will not always win.  The luckiest team however, will always win.  I'm going to present you with two teams and I can guarantee one team will look way better to you.  You will crave and wish you could possess such a wonderful team.  Yet, when the championship was on the line, this team of supposed studs fell short to a rag tag team of free agents and surprises.

The Final Step to Winning Fantasy: Bringing it All Together

   Alright, you've got some sweet running backs, wide receivers, a QB you don't hate, a TE that has a resounding sameness to everyone else's TE, and you're rolling into the final rounds deciding when to grab a defense and a kicker.  In this final post on my fantasy strategy I'm going to bring all the steps together and tell you how to finish strong.  A lot of analysts claim that waiting until the last two rounds to grab a defense and kicker is the way to go, but I beg to differ.  Like I've said this is a game about advantages, and I feel that the defense/kicker advantage almost always goes overlooked.  The total points they amass may be only slightly different (with the exception of the Bears' D last year), but extra points are extra points, so there is no reason to pass up on them.  Wait til the end for a D?  Not on my watch:

The Fantasy Five: Wide Receivers

Wide Receiver, like quarterback, is a very deep position this year in fantasy.  There are the Calvin Johnsons, AJ Greens, and Brandon Marshalls of the world, but after that there are tons of really good options.  However, I feel like a lot of these middle round guys have some question marks, and aren’t necessarily much better, or any better than the receivers you could get late.  If you want to take a number 1 receiver early I don’t blame you, but I’m waiting until I’m totally set at running back and maybe tight end and quarterback too before I start dipping into receivers this year.  Here are some potential key later round picks, and since fantasy football is all about value, these are guys whose late-round value could carry you to a fantasy championship.

The Fantasy Five: Quarterbacks

There are 11 really good options at quarterback this year for fantasy.  That means that in a 12-team league, only the very last team will be stuck choosing between risky or questionable options.  Since the top 11 are all really good and I would be happy with any of them, I’ll choose 5 later quarterbacks in case you want to wait or need a second quarterback for some reason.  Because even past those initial 11, there is a lot of potential at this position.

Step 4 to Winning Fantasy: To QB, or not to QB; This is the Answer

   See what I did there?  A little humor for you English majors out there.  All horrible jokes aside, today I'm going to talk about the most important position on the football field, the quarterback.  Quarterbacks always lead the league in fantasy points scored, and this year sees an incredible depth at the position.  With breakouts such as Colin Kaepernick, RG3, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck bringing up the REAR of the top ten, you know it's a special year.  More and more often I have seen top notch QBs drop in mock drafts, and I suspect it is because people are reading my articles on RBs and WRs.  Not really, but let's pretend that's the reason.  Regardless, top tier RBs are disappearing earlier, so what should you do when all the RBs are gone and you have managed to look away from the sexy wideouts?  Let me tell you:

The CFL: It is What You Think It is

    The Canadian Football League; I assumed they only play games during the winter because, you know, it's Canada and what not, but here we are in the middle of July, and the CFL teams are four games into their season.  Saturday nights shouldn't be boring.  They're the night to go out and grab a drink with some friends; that is, unless all of your friends are in other cities or states.  So there I was flipping channels, desperately trying to find something entertaining, when I saw there was football on.  Maybe I'm just desperate for the NFL, or maybe I just wanted to give those loveable Canadians a chance, but either way I gambled and spent the next three hours watching the Montreal Alouettes take on the Calgary Stampeders.

R.I.P. Yankees

The New York Yankees’ 2013 season is over.  It just is.  I hate to say it, but trade Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain for some prospects, don’t bother appealing A-Rod’s suspension whenever it comes down, and start scouting that 2014 free agent pool.  When I turned on Sports Center this morning only to see the news break about five minutes in that Derek Jeter was heading back to the DL, I took it not so much as bad baseball news as a sign.  Whose fault is it that the Yankees will miss the playoffs this year for the 2^nd time in the past 19 years?  Well, partly it’s the fact that the Red Sox, Rays, and Orioles are all awesome and even the bottom-dwelling, under-achiever Blue Jays are stacked for any given game.  But it’s not Joe Girardi, or the Cash Man, or A-Rod, or the inability to hit that inexplicably killed them in last year’s playoffs.  No, as lame of an excuse as it is, the Yankees have simply been killed by chance and injuries.  Let’s break it down a little bit.

Step 3 to Winning Fantasy: The Easiest Step

    Readers are easily lured in when I tell them something is going to be easy.  I like that.  I promise this step will be easy, for the most part.  If you've gotten to this point you hopefully read my first two posts.  If not, here are the links: http://firstandfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-secret-to-winning-fantasy-football.html, http://firstandfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/07/step-2-for-winning-fantasy-those-sexy.html.  This step will help you to understand when it is appropriate to pick, or reach for, a tight end.  There are two great TEs, three upper-middle class, and then a lot of common folk.  I have to agree with the Talented Mr. Roto here, I either want to pick my TE first, or last.  As I've mentioned before, you want to have as many advantages as you can in fantasy football.  Tight end offers perhaps the biggest advantage week to week if you grab the right guy.  Let's check it out.

The Fantasy Five: Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson

            …Alright just kidding I’ll go a little deeper.  But seriously, if you have #1 just draft him. You don’t want people laughing at you...

Step 2 for Winning Fantasy: Those Sexy Wideouts

    Alright, if you've made it this far you must really want to win fantasy.  This is going to be the hardest step in my undetermined amount of steps program.  Wide Receivers are the sexiest picks, but will they help you win?  Do you need the top tier guys to win your league?  The quick answer is no.  The long answer is also no.  Look away from how cool Calvin Johnson is!  He may be the coolest guy in the room, but this is a room full of guys who are only slightly less cool, and can do the job almost as well without any sacrifices.  Are you still looking at Megatron??  What did I tell you?  Time to learn why it's cool to be less sexy; but first we gotta know where everyone stands.

AFC North Preview

Alright, the AFC North.  The toughest division in the conference.  At the top it’s not particularly menacing since none of these teams are as good as the Broncos or Patriots, and they’re not even necessarily better than the Colts or Texans.  The Ravens lost some key players, the Steelers are aging and injury-prone, and the Bengals have some really solid talent but haven’t proven that they are able to take the next step from good playoff contender to elite Super Bowl contender.  It’s sort of a toss up between these three since they all have outstanding issues that could conceivably be resolved or overcome, but coming into the season the question marks cannot be entirely ignored.  At least I get to start with the one team whose position I am entirely confident in…

Everybody Loves Rankings Part IV

    In the famous words of Jacobim Mugatu, "That damn NFC West is so hot right now!"  Ok, maybe that's not exactly what he said, but it's close.  The NFC West is the closest thing we have to a Hansel in the NFL world, and they are taking the the league by storm.  Two hot young QBs along with some studly defenses and mastermind coaches.  It feels like just a fortnight ago this was by far the worst league in the entire NFL.  What happened?  I still have no idea.  Let's see how these teams stack up.

The Secret to Winning Fantasy Football 2013

    Now that I have your attention I can break the news that I do not possess some magical secret that will automatically win you your fantasy league.  What I do have is a certain set of skills.....a set of skills that makes me a nightmare for people like you who think you are better than me at fantasy.... But seriously, I have some skills.  More of a perfect strategy.  A strategy that has not let me down yet (remember 2 for 2!).  But before I get into my plan for this year's draft, let me put my rankings here for you, the people.  We'll start with running backs.

Everybody Loves Rankings Part III

    Today we move from the most competitive NFC division to what I believe is the most talented division (sorry NFC West, the Cards and Rams don't stack up to the Lions and Vikings, both of whom have made the playoffs once in the last two years).  The NFC North is stacked with the league's best players at RB, WR, AND QB.  Seriously, they house the best player at each of those positions; what's not to love.  Regardless, I think the rankings should be a little easier to predict.  There's an alpha dog, a team that really (I mean really) outperformed expectations, a team that choked, and a talented misfit.  Let's take a look.

Everybody Loves Rankings Part II

    I'm starting to feel like I got the short straw in terms of leagues.  The AFC is pretty clear cut in every division except, perhaps, the North.  Meanwhile, I'm sitting here drawing teams out of hats.  The subject of this post will be the ever changing and ever frustrating NFC East.  I believe that it is the least talented division, but also the most competitive.  I see 9-7 or 10-6 winning the division.  I see a complete flip flop of the standings last year.....well maybe not, but you get the point.  This is a challenging one, and at no point shall I claim to be confident in my picks.  Now that you are ready to trust every word I say, let's check it out.

AFC West Preview

The AFC West turns out to be a very similar division to the AFC East in 2013.  One clearly dominant force, one up and coming young team that could potentially take big strides forward, one team with talent but not enough to make use of it, and one team that is straight up awful.  You can probably guess which is which, but let’s look at each team a little more closely…

AFC East Preview

The AFC East, a.k.a. the Patriots.  Since that’s really what this division has been ever since I can remember.  They won all those Super Bowls back in the day, and had season after season of success, and one year when Tom Brady gets injured and we all think we’re finally going to get some relief, what happens? Matt Cassel (how’s he done since then?) somehow leads the team into the playoffs yet again.  The Jets had a few good years taking it to New England, but now they’ve fallen off the map and we’re back to Patriot domination.  I would like to think the Patriots are somewhat vulnerable this year, and some of the other teams are certainly taking steps forward, but when it comes to the division standings I’m afraid it’s pretty clear cut…

AFC South Preview

The AFC South.  The easiest division in football.  That’s right.  It used to be the NFC West, but all of a sudden the 49ers and Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders.  Perhaps the AFC West? The Broncos are preseason favorites and the Chiefs are looking up as well.  Even in the AFC East, the Dolphins are getting more dangerous, the Bills have C.J. Spiller, and the Patriots suddenly have some decent competition.  The AFC South is finally, undoubtedly the weakest division in football.  However, as we look at an ever-aging, ever-weakening AFC in general that includes Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore all having lost or getting ready to lose key franchise, Hall of Fame players, perhaps the two most exciting young power houses coming up in the conference are Houston and Indianapolis.  So, let’s get to it.

Baseball's Second Half

    I can't figure out why this part of the baseball season is called the second "half".  Teams have all finished over 90 games.  Let's do a little math.....90 divided by 162 is....carry the one..... .5555!!!  We are more than half way through the season people! I don't know why the All Star Game doesn't take place after game 81.  My guess is that it's one of those "That's just how it's always been done" things for baseball.  There are a lot of those.  Just check out the screwy rule book.  Anyway, as we move into the second fraction that may or may not be a half of the baseball season I want to look forward and predict how the season will finish.  Sorry Willis, it isn't bright for Los Yankees.

Why I Love Sports (and fantasy)

To follow in my esteemed colleague’s footsteps, I just want to answer a couple basic questions before getting into the juicy meat sandwich that is the AFC 2013: who is this guy and why do I care? My name is Willis but you can call me whatever you want – still searching for that catchy blogger-type nickname.  I grew up in New York City and go to school at Davidson College in North Carolina.  I love sports (big on NFL, MLB, NHL but I have been getting more into the NBA in recent years) and have played fantasy for many years.  I am well versed in the intricacies of baseball and football, both in fantasy and real life, and I have never missed a fantasy hockey final so that speaks for itself (hint: it’s all about goalies). 

Everybody Loves Rankings

   If you read the title of this post and thought "Hmmm, that ALMOST sounds like a classic TV sitcom", you'd be exactly right!  If you didn't think that I'm afraid the average joke isn't worth explaining.  Ok fine, it's a play on Everybody Loves Raymond.  Happy?  Good.  My co-worker and I (Willis) have decided to break up and then break down the NFL.  Conveniently there are two of us and two leagues.  Perfect right!?  Gotta love math.  As I mentioned I am a diehard Panthers fan, and since my co-worker fancies himself a Colts fan I shall be tackling the NFC while he makes the AFC his bitch.  This will be the first in a series of posts breaking down the four divisions in the NFC.  The NFC is stacked this year, so it should be interesting.

Getting Things Started

     Fantasy.  Just a word.  More of an idea really.  A really damn good idea.  Fantasy doesn't "technically" exist, but we can't all star for an NFL, MLB, NHL, or NBA team.  Some of us have to pretend so that we feel closer to the games.  We want to feel like we know the players, and that they are acting to help us.  Adrian Peterson proved he is a robot to help ME win fantasy, not to help the Vikings.  Adrian and I are friends; in my league anyway.  Sure it sounds crazy, but that's what makes fantasy awesome.  Living vicariously through the biggest stars, on the biggest stage.  It's like chess, but with 80 yard touchdowns to seal a win, and last minute field goals to shove in your best friends face.  OK, it's not that similar to chess, but you get the point.  I digress.