Level 1 (also known as AD land or the land where defenses get no sleep)
Drum roll.........just Adrian Peterson! That's right no one else is allowed in here; not after the show this guy put on last year. I think he will regress, but only a little. I just think it is impossible to put up over 2000 yards two seasons in a row. That said he is the best, and it isn't close. If you have the number one pick and it takes you more than 5 seconds....hell 3 seconds to pick this guy I will seriously doubt you for the rest of the draft.
Level 2 (studs of the highest caliber)
Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and Marshawn Lynch. I want one of these guys. They may not be the sexiest pick but they have the quality that I love: dependability. These guys are going to get theirs. I know some people are concerned about Bernard Pierce in Baltimore, but those people need to shut up. I had Ray last year, and sure he lost a couple TDs, but I knew he was good for 14-16 points every week, and that is reliability I love. They have proven themselves for more than a single year, and that's the sexiest thing of all.
Level 3 (studs I'm not ready to trust my newborn with)
Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Jamaal Charles, Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris, MJD. I love these guys, but I'm not sold yet. Either they have only shown themselves to be great for one year, or are coming back from a shaky, injury riddled season. Some of you may think Jamaal should be in the category above me, but I want another good year from him. I like to be skeptical of people, it's how I make safe picks. That being said, these are all number one guys. Even MJD. He will come back and he will get a full load. If you get him as your second running back I think you've won your league. He's in a contract year and needs to prove the doubters wrong. Two seasons ago he led the league in rushing, give him a break.
Level 4 (Stud number 2 guys)
Steven Ridley, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Frank Gore. If you have a late pick and end up with Megatron and none of the guys above me, these are the guys you need to grab. Like right now. Please, to save your team. These guys are getting old, have been a little unreliable, or are new on the scene, but have great potential. CJ2K is a top talent missing motivation, Jackson should thrive in Atl but is a geezer at this point, Gore has been relentlessly solid every year (although his carries will probably continue to drop), Forte is a stud but loses goal line TDs and can't stay healthy, and Ridley is on a pass-happy team that is only now discovering the run. Of all these guys I like Ridley the most (NE will run this year, especially with their...um...debacle at receive), but a lot of people are on the Jackson train in Atl.
Level 5 (solid number 2/flex guys)
Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles. If you've made it this far and don't have a number 2 guy yet, grab one of these two now. Why? They're really reliable. I love Bush in Detroit, and he is going to see a ton of passes. Sproles continues to average double digit points in the incredible Saints offense, and gets a ton of red zone action. These guys don't get hurt often (or ever if it's Sproles), and they won't hurt your team. They may not have as much upside as some other guys, but as I've said I like average, consistent guys who will produce week in and week out.
Level 6 (guys who could be number 2, but they REALLY scare me)
DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, David Wilson, Montee Ball, Lamar Miller, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Chris Ivory. Man do I not want any of these guys. They could be great, but I don't feel confident in any of them. DMC has the most talent, but he'll never finish a season healthy. Murray has upside, but again, keeps letting Dallas down. Wilson proved he could be a number one guy last year when another guy on this list was injured, but I think Andre Brown will get a lot of action. Ball is my favorite rookie in the Broncos offense, but how much faith can you put in a guy in a pass-happy offense? Bradshaw was injured a lot last year, but should get the nod in Indy. Ivory has been injured a lot, is playing on a crappy team, but does average a great number of yards per carry (like 6??). As for Miller he doesn't even have the starting job yet. If I had to pick one of these guys give me Bradshaw. He'll have to beat out Vick Ballard, but I think he will.
Level 7 (guys that may be a flex play if you're really desperate)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Le'Veon Bell, Rashard Mendenhall, Eddie Lacy, Ryan Matthews, and Isaiah Pead. Ok, you're running out of palatable players and these guys are starting to look tasty. It's probably due to good player dehydration, but you don't care, you need someone now. Personally, I wouldn't put any of these guys anywhere but a bench, but if I have to pick one give me Lacy or Bell. Both have promise to be solid starters on their respective teams. My favorite here is Lacy as his job feels the safest. BJGE goes nowhere but my bench. Same for Mendenhall. As for Matthews I'm still waiting for him to surprise me. It probably won't be this year; or ever. As for Pead, another great bench guy. That's it. If you're looking for a number 2 guy here you will not win your league, my condolences.
Level 8 (guys to put on your bench in case of an injury)
Andre Brown, Shane Vereen, Bernard Pierce, Giovani Bernard, Vick Ballard, Mikel Leshoure, Johnathan Franklin, and Marcel Reece. One of my favorite strategies late in the draft is to pick up the backups for the running backs I plan to start. This saves me the trouble of scouring the waiver wire if my main guy goes down because ta-da! I already have his backup who is ready to take the full load. I really like Pierce, Bernard, Brown, and Vereen in this category. All are proven except for Bernard, and they will get the nod if the guy in front of them goes down. Snatch these guys up when you're trudging through the last rounds.
All right, that's as deep as I'm going to go. Part One of the perfect strategy? Try as hard as you can to get two of the the guys in the top three levels. In my two trips to the championship I have had Adrian Peterson and DSproles (a really thin league), and Ray Rice and AP. Some may think this just means grab AP, but I say I don't win if I have Ahmad Bradshaw and AP instead. The team I met in the finals this past year?, he had Jamaal Charles and Doug Martin (I drafted this guy's team as he was abroad, so really I was playing myself in the championship. Damn I'm good). This post is getting a bit long, so I'll come back with WR ranks next time as well as step 2 to my strategy. Not all of you can get two guys in the top three levels, so what are you to do? Tune in.
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