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Thursday, July 18, 2013

Step 2 for Winning Fantasy: Those Sexy Wideouts

    Alright, if you've made it this far you must really want to win fantasy.  This is going to be the hardest step in my undetermined amount of steps program.  Wide Receivers are the sexiest picks, but will they help you win?  Do you need the top tier guys to win your league?  The quick answer is no.  The long answer is also no.  Look away from how cool Calvin Johnson is!  He may be the coolest guy in the room, but this is a room full of guys who are only slightly less cool, and can do the job almost as well without any sacrifices.  Are you still looking at Megatron??  What did I tell you?  Time to learn why it's cool to be less sexy; but first we gotta know where everyone stands.

Level 1 (the homecoming king who also won your highschool the football championship)
    Calvin Johnson.  Wow that's a cool guy.  Have you seen that commercial where they dress him in a fantastic suit?  I'd have sex with that guy Hands down the best receiver in the league, and that was scoring only five touchdowns last year.  That number will certainly go up, AND I think he'll crack 2000 yards this year.  That adds up to one ridiculous year.  I hate to say it, but you must pass up on him.  Let some other team become cooler than yours.  You don't want to be cool, you want to be effective.  You want advantages that no other team has.  Unfortunately for Megatron, his position is deep. Realllllly deep.  Receivers' touches are much less reliable, even for the best.  Sorry, but if you listen to me you aren't going to be one of the cool kids.  You will, however, achieve greatness.  No flipping burgers for you.

Level 2 (the guys who follow the cool guy aspiring to be him, but still really cool)
   A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, and Larry Fitzgerald.  Here we have really talented, big guys who are just a shade less talented than Mr. Johnson.  Green has established himself over the last two years as the second or third best receiver in the league, Marshall is thriving once again re-united with Cutler, and Larry is my personal pick here.  It was only one year ago that he was ranked as the second best fantasy receiver going into the season.  ONE year.  Apparently analysts think John Skelton's ooze has contaminated Fitz, but not me.  He's going to have a top five year with Palmer.  He has the best hands in the game without a doubt.  My advice for these guys is to draft them if they are available in the third round.  Only Fitz has been there throughout my mocks this summer, but you never know.  You can consider them in the second if all of my top level backs (top 3 levels) are gone.  Otherwise, try to hold out and snag rbs.

Level 3 (Seriously, don't take these guys in round 2, it's not worth it.  But they are cool)
   Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Percy Harvin, and Roddy White.  Most of these guys are being taken in the second round.  I understand that.  People want stud receivers.  But there are still so many studs after these guys!  A lot of people also probably think Dez should be in the group above me.  I guess I'm not quite as exciteable as most analysts (that's right, I think I'm an "analyst").  Before the second half of last season Dez had only under-performed.  He showed he can beat up on average corners, but I'm not sold he's tier 2 yet.  He has the talent, but not the drive.  These guys can help you win games, but not championships if you draft them in the second round.

Level 4 (How are these guys still on the board in round 3??)
   Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, Wes Welker, and Victor Cruz.  What did I tell you?  If you would be upset with ANY of these guys as your number one, you're crazy.  Last year I won with Marques Colston as my number one.  That's right.  And he hasn't even show up yet.  These guys all have established, talented quarterbacks (possibly with the exception of VJax, but the marriage has worked so far), and will put up great numbers week to week.  Any of these guys can match what the levels above me put up on a weekly basis.  So why are they ranked lower?  I suppose they aren't quite as talented, but to me they are all number ones.  Snatch one up in round 3!

Level 5 (shaky number 1 guys, solid number 2 guys)
    Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Wallace.  Even I'm surprised these guys are still here.  In my mocks it has been my goal to grab one of these guys in the fourth round.  If you aren't happy with VJax and Jordy Nelson as your one-two punch, get out.  Colston has produced year after year, same goes for Wayne, Nelson ought to come back strong from injury, and Wallace is always a deep threat (even with Tannehill, who ought to improve having this talent to throw to).

Level 6 (Getting a little bit shaky, but still decent number 2 guys)
   Danny Amendola, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, Eric Decker, and Dwayne Bowe.  I'm STILL surprised these guys are here.  Amendola just got a top three QB, Nicks is a top ten receiver is he's healthy, Smith has produced year after year and remains Cam's only decent target, Jennings got a serious downgrade at QB, but when healthy he is a top ten guy easily, Decker just put up double digits TDs and is thriving with Peyton, and Bowe has incredible talent and a really accurate QB.  I honestly wouldn't be terribly upset with these guys as my number two, but I really would like them as my flex.  Running back isn't deep enough to hope for a flex there, so snag one of these guys and revel in your WR strength (even after waiting). 

Level 7 (I'd prefer if these guys helped to stack my bench)
    Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Cecil Shorts, James Jones, Torrey Smith, and DeSean Jackson.  These guys all have tremendous upside, but I'm not confident enough to start any of them.  They're great replacements if you suffer an injury, but hopefully that injury isn't a long-term one.  My favorite of this group might actually be Garcon who should do well with his accurate QB.  Sleeper?  Kind of.  

Level 8 (no seriously, it's bench time)
   Tavon Austin, Anquan Boldin, Steve Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Danario Alexander, and Miles Austin.  This group is very similar to the last level, but are a bit less proven.  A lot less proven actually.  With the exception of Boldin and Austin, these guys are new or unreliable.  My favorite is probably Hilton who showed his talent with the deep ball last year, but they are all great bench additions.

  All right, that is as deep as I am going to go.  Are you convinced that you can wait on WR yet?  I understand some of you will have to grab the top level guys due to your draft position, but that is not the worst thing in the world.  Just make sure to grab one Level 3 running back if possible and then start reaching for Sproles and Bush.  That gives one stud RB, and solid number 2, and an incredible wideout core.  As I mentioned, wideouts' touches are must less reliable, so that is not my favorite route.  In fact, if you get one stud running back and can't get another with your second pick, I say go for Jimmy Graham.  Having that sort of advantage week in and week out pays off.  I had Gronk on my championship team last year (got him with my second pick), and it paid off almost every week.  So there you have it; step 2 is to wait on wideouts.  Do not look Megatron directly in the eyes!  He'll lure you in and then it may be over.  This position is deeeeep, so you can afford to wait.  Or get Jimmy Graham.  Whichever.   

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