Sleepers and Busts isn't clever enough for this blog, so today I am going to present you with my nappers and wastes. I know I know, maybe a little too clever this time, but I couldn't hold back. We are witnessing the year of the torn ACL. Every day we check ESPN, cowering in fear that one of our teams' players is today's news, and so far so good unless you're an Eagles, Ravens, Packers, Niners, Seahawks, or Patriots fan. Okay, so something probably has happened to your team. Sure that sucks for the real season, but your fantasy season still has hope! Players are going down left and right, but so far they haven't really been fantasy studs. However, they are mid-level guys that actually will make a difference, even if they seem inconsequential. Today I'm going to help you find undervalued players, or help you avoid overvalued ones. Of course you then have to hope they don't get hurt, but hey, I can only do so much. Let's start with the nappers.
I'm going to define a napper as a player outside the top 50 who I believe is close to ten positions too low in ADP. This way they are actually worth considering for your starting lineup, but still grab-able once you have your core solidified. Check em out:
1. Dwayne Bowe-I'm really excited for Bowe this year. I have consistently attempted to get him as my second receiver, usually having to choose between Bowe, Jordy Nelson, and Steve Smith. Nelson's recent surgery worries me, and Smith sees a lot of double coverage as the only legit option in Carolina. Alex Smith is incredibly accurate and will get the ball to his top receiver. Andy Reid has a habit of making quarterbacks better than they actually are (see Donovan McNabb). This team is going to throw a lot more, and Bowe is a physical specimen to be reckoned with. Snag him in the fourth or fifth round if you can.
2. Pierre Garcon-When healthy, Garcon has put up incredibly solid numbers with RG3. You have all seen the pass against the Saints over the middle to Garcon, and he is easily the best deep threat on this team. He claims to be 100% at the moment, and I think he is a top notch flex or solid number 2 guy. Some may fear the boom or bust weeks with Garcon, but RG3 isn't going to be running as much, so look for him to throw to this guy.
3. Torrey Smith-This one is a bit more obvious. Dennis Pitta is gone, and so is Anquan Boldin. Flacco has to throw to someone, right? Ray Rice cannot carry this team the whole time, and the offensive coordinator likes to make him disappear in the second half of games (owning him in fantasy was....frustrating at times). Smith has proven himself as a deep threat, and I think he can work well over the middle. Look for him to finish as a top ten guy.
4. DeAngelo Williams-I know it feels like forever ago, but in 2008 Williams ran for 1515 yards and 18 TDs. Those are some insane numbers, and prove his upside. Jonathan Stewart is always a threat to take carries, and so is Cam, and Mike Tolbert will steal TDs, so this is risky, but Stewart is consistently injured. Look for the Panthers to run much more consistently this year (straying away from the option to a more traditional offense). Williams ran for 210 yards in the final week of last season, nuf said. Picking him won't cost you an arm and a leg, and he can make it worth it.
5. Golden Tate/Sidney Rice-Personally, I'm partial towards Rice in this duo, if only because he helped me to win a couple games last year. However, Tate offers better value, ranked 30 spots lower than Rice while putting up the same number of double digit fantasy games last year at five. Rice averaged 6.9 points per game and Tate averaged 6.7, so it really is a toss up. With Percy Harvin out this offense will look suspiciously like it did last year, but that isn't a bad thing. Russell Wilson proved he can pass in the second half of the season, and he will continue to do so. Snag one of these guys for your flex spot, you won't regret it.
Alright, similar to my nappers, wastes will be players who I believe are ranked at least 10 spots too high, but inside the top 50. These are guys I'm skeptical of and do not want to waste early picks on. Check em out:
1. Doug Martin-My first gripe with Martin is that he didn't put up insane numbers against the Panthers. I mean come on, our run D is pretty terrible. My second gripe is that he couldn't help beat me in the fantasy championship. If you can't help my opponent win, how can you help me win? But seriously, take away the huge outliers from last year and Martin barely cracks the top ten in RBs. Top ten RB? Definitely. Top five? Not on my watch. His yards per carry declined towards the end of the year, and true studs don't show up that often. Someone in the top ten has to be an anomaly, and I think it will be Martin.
2. Steven Jackson-Just because you put a great player on a great team doesn't mean he'll be great. Wait, does that make sense? Not really, but hear me out. Jackson ran for over 100 yards just TWICE last season, and the Falcons' offensive line certainly isn't significantly better than the Rams'. Sure, he may see more TD opportunities, but with players like MJD and CJ2K who have much larger upsides hanging around with Jackson, I have to say he has become a bit overrated. He will be solid, but there are better options. This team is primarily a throwing attack, so he is by no means going to be a work horse. He is also about to be on the wrong side of 30. Let's take a chill pill on Jackson.
3. Dez Bryant-In his first eight weeks of the season Bryant had games of 8 ,1, 6, 1, 9, and 1. Those are some really low numbers. Like not-good-enough-to-be-a-flex low. Then something clicked in his head and he went off for seven straight double digit games including ten touchdowns. He then finished with a 7 pointer. Now there is clearly upside here, but are you ready to call him the third best receiver IN THE LEAGUE?? Don't you need more than one seven game stretch to pass the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, and Andre Johnson? I think Dez can be great, but I'm not risking my second round pick on him. He clearly has a tendency to take games off, and that worries me.
4. Cam Newton-Forgive me, Cam. I don't think he isn't a top five QB, I just don't think it is worth taking him in the third or fourth round. The Panthers are going to run much more this year, and (hopefully) rely on Cam a lot less. The running corps of the Panthers is incredibly talented, and they do not need to rely on Cam so much. He hasn't developed as a top notch passer yet, so he really relies on the rushing TDs for the fantasy game. Seeing what happened to RG3 might scare the Panthers into using Tolbert more on the goal line, so look for Cam's fantasy stats to go down a bit.
5. Mike Wallace-I do not really care for the boom or bust players. Wallace had only five double-digit performances last year, including NINE of 7 or less. Tannehill is going to improve this year, but not to the level of Big Ben. And yet Wallace is ranked higher than a healthy Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Eric Decker, Dwayne Bowe and semi-healthy Jordy Nelson? Seems a bit crazy to me. The Dolphins are not going to be elite, as they are still in a transition mode. I like Wallace as a possible flex play, but certainly not a WR2, which is what he is drafting at right now.
Alright. there you have 5 nappers and 5 wastes. Grab who you can, avoid who I tell you to avoid, and you will be better off than you were. Maybe. I'm feeling confident going into the season, but that's bound to change. So definitely listen to my advice. Or don't. Whatever is cool. Keep tuning in.
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