Pages

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

NFL Receiving Corps

We all know who the top receivers in the NFL are.  Calvin Johnson.  AJ Green.  Brandon Marshall.  Andre Johnson.  But how about these names?  Nate Burleson.  Mohamed Sanu.  Alshon Jeffery.  Keshawn Martin and DeAndre Hopkins.  Yeah you’ve probably heard of them, and maybe a couple of them are your sleeper picks.  But it is unbelievable how many NFL teams have maybe one elite receiving option, and then a whole lot of nothing after that.  Those first four elite receivers that I mentioned have absolutely no one to take pressure away from them, and except for possibly Megatron they don’t have really elite quarterbacks that could help them make up for lack of receiving depth.  That’s not to say they won’t be knockout star receivers this year.  They will (with the possible exception of Andre Johnson based on health issues), and it won’t matter if the whole defense is guarding them.  They are that good.  But whether you’re talking about maximizing receiver value in fantasy or just winning real-life NFL games, receiving depth is often the difference between a good team and a great team.  The Patriots don’t have it.  They’ll still be good.  But will they be great?  That largely depends on the health of Danny Amendola and Gronk.  As much as quarterback play and the ability to run and defensive toughness matter, a strong, deep receiving corps is really, really important and only a couple of teams in each conference have it.



The Super Elite - Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos
The two best receiving groups in the NFL, no doubt about it.  These groups are also surprisingly similar.  You have the ultra-dangerous deep threat (Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas), the second equally good receiver who would be number 1 on almost any other team (Roddy White and Wes Welker), and the third super solid, reliable target that makes you think how am I supposed to guard everyone on this damn team (Tony Gonzalez and Eric Decker).  Maybe Harry Douglas at the fourth spot gives the Falcons a slight edge, but how much impact will a fourth receiver have really?  These teams are both stacked and with a combination of elite receivers and elite quarterbacks, they could easily meet in the Super Bowl.

The Elite (Because of Quarterback) - New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers
These groups are close behind in the second tier, but I think the elite tag on their receivers is based as much on the quarterback play as it is on the skill of the receivers themselves.  The Packers lost Greg Jennings, but still have a nasty trio of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and James Jones.  Throw Jermichael Finley in there if he can get anywhere close to where he was a couple years ago.  The Saints lost Devery Henderson, but still look pretty good with Marques Colston and Lance Moore, and Jimmy Graham hopefully coming back healthy making all the difference in this group.  Those are a couple of nasty three-receiver groups, but I just feel like they’re not quite on the same level as the Falcons or Broncos.  They’ll be as good as anyone because of Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, but if only a decent quarterback like Andy Dalton or Russell Wilson were the one throwing it?  They’re slightly behind the first tier based on pure receiving skill, but still in that group of 4, maybe 5 teams with great, deep receiving corps.

The Elite (If Healthy) - New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys
These are the only two teams left with elite receiving corps.  They rank in the third tier because there are outstanding question marks as far as health is concerned.  Will Hakeem Nicks make it through the season at 100%? If so, then he along with Cruz and Randle would form probably the 5th best receiving group in the league.  With Eli Manning, that kind of talent will take you places, as we’ve seen in recent Super Bowl memory.  That’s a huge question mark though.  Will Dez Bryant and Miles Austin stay 100% and healthy?  Once again, if they do, then they’ll be a really good group along with Jason Witten, and Tony Romo has skills.  But the health of those guys is somewhat doubtful.  Hopefully these groups can stay healthy and make the NFC East really exciting this year.  But if any of these injury-prone receivers goes down or has to play at less than full-strength (an increasingly common occurrence in the NFL as we’ve seen lately), then the groups quickly fall into the average to mediocre category of teams that have one elite receiver and not much else.

The Honorable Mentions:
Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers

There are a lot more teams that could be added to this list too.  The Bears if Alshon Jeffery steps up.  The Texans if DeAndre Hopkins pans out.  The Colts are counting on TY Hilton, the Cardinals on Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts, the Bucs on Mike Williams, the Steelers on Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown and maybe even Burress or Cotchery.  There will be a few breakout receivers this year and whoever they are, they will probably push their team up to the brink of that elite receiving corps threshold.  But as of now, no team beyond the 5 or 6 mentioned earlier has the depth of proven receivers to really be considered elite, and even those top teams are an injury or two away from falling down the list.  So when you ask yourself if your team has a top-10 receiving corps, the answer for almost any team in the league (sorry Jets and Raiders, not you) is potentially yes depending on how well they play this year.

No comments:

Post a Comment