Level 1 (Please impregnate my wife so I have a champion son)
Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. I can already hear people yelling "What about my boys Brady and Manning?? Wahhh", but I am afraid to say they are not going to be on this level this year. Rodgers and Brees both throw a lot and throw effectively. They do not have a super efficient run attack stealing some of their thunder, and they have incredible arsenals to throw to. These guys are threats to put up 30 points every week, and will win your team many games by themselves. So where should you draft them? The earliest I would go is late second round, and only if all the stud RBs are gone. I can't stress enough how important it is to get as many top tier RBs as you can, so I'll say it one more time: the first two rounds are all about RBs!!!!!!!!! All right, that's exactly enough times. I've seen both of these guys drop to the third round in mocks, and by all means grab them then. Managing to snag two top RBs AND one of these guys could win you your league, but if it's anyone other than these two, hold off.
Level 2 (doing it the old fashioned way)
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. The models of consistency (when healthy), these guys have been at it for over a decade. However, they have had opposite offseasons. Peyton has seen his arsenal grow to include Wes Welker, while poor Brady has watched his top 5 receivers disappear. I still think Brady will make do (he always does, dammit), but Peyton definitely has a slight edge in this group. I'm not grabbing either of these guys earlier than the fourth round, however. Peyton is a risk to go down at any point with an injury (even though he probably won't), and Brady, as I mentioned, is suffering with a bunch of nobodies to throw to. I have gotten Peyton in the fourth round of a mock, and it makes for a solid team, but I'm hoping they both get taken off the board so that I don't have to choose them.
Level 3 (Damn the NFC South is loaded)
Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. I've had Cam in a league. I know how amazing he is. I'm his number one fan. All that being said, he has some bad weeks. If the running stats aren't there, you cannot rely on him to throw enough to win the game for you. Nonetheless, he is a threat to snag multiple running TDs every week, and I love him unconditionally. Still, I will not draft him. I have to love from afar this year. As for Matty Ice, I almost put him in the level above this one. He just hasn't earned it yet. He has the best receiving core in the league, and proved again and again last season how clutch he really is. I stupidly picked Romo over him last year, and he made me regret it. I would happily snag this guy in the sixth round if he is available, but he probably won't be. You're probably catching on to my strategy by now which is:
Level 4 (the guys to wait for!!!)
Colin Kaepernick, Russel Wilson, RG3, and Matthew Stafford. Six QBs off the board and you can still snag one of these guys? Count me in! There is a fair amount of risk with any of these guys (except maybe Stafford), but it is well worth the reward. These guys are all going fifth and sixth round-ish, which is a great place to grab a QB. I like to wait until the sixth round and look for RG3 or Stafford. Personally, my favorite of this group is Stafford. He was ranked top five last year preseason, and struggled a little bit, but I see no reason why he cannot bounce back. That would mean you get a second round pick in the sixth round. It's a beautiful thing. RG3 is a bit risky, but even if he misses a week or two it is easy to find a backup until then, and he has tremendous upside. Kaep and Wilson are both on incredible teams and thus do not have too much pressure on them, so I look for them to continue to thrive.
Level 5 (you still can't go wrong!)
Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger. I like Romo the most in this group as he finished second in passing yards last year, but these guys have all been there and done that (with the exception of Luck). Five Super Bowl rings and years of being above average make them solid QBs, and you can get them really late. Tony Romo held down my QB spot for most of last year, and Roethlisberger did the same for the team I met in the finals. They can do the job, even if they aren't the most glamorous picks. Luck is the only real wild card here, but I expect his yards to remain constant while the INTs go down and the passing average goes up.
Level 6 (Alright, you waited a little too long)
Michael Vick, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, and Josh Freeman. Vick has the most upside here if he can stay healthy, as he has a very talented offense around him. I started Dalton a fair amount of games last season, and it was a roller coaster. Bradford got a nice piece in Tavon Austin, but he is woefully inconsistent. As for Cutler and Freeman, one of the other four playoff teams in my league last year used a combo of them to carry him as far as they could. The team failed to reach the championship, but it was because of a lack of RBs, not because of these QBs.
Three of the four playoff teams in my league last year were carried by a workshop of guys in level 4 and below. Quarterbacks CAN win you any given week, but the top guys require giving up so much that I do not believe it is worth it. I either want to grab Rodgers or Brees in round 3, or a level 4/5 guy in round 6 or 7. Anything else requires too much sacrifice. Just hope someone else grabs the top guys so you don't have to think about it, because it is really hard to pass on Peyton Manning if he is sitting there in round 4. Good luck, and look for my last piece on kickers and defenses to come out later this week.
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