Will's Winning Strategy

Since there’s not a whole lot else going on in the wide world of sports, I thought I would share my fantasy football draft strategy for this year, as Patrick recently did.  Mine will not be as extensive or well thought out, but I have done some mock drafts and this is what I have discovered.  It is by no means an all-encompassing strategy, since it depends on what position you are drafting from, what type of league, how many teams, and many other factors.  If you are in an annoyingly large 12-man league like I am with the first pick, you may not be able to wait all the way until the last pick in the sixth round, #72 to be exact, to get your starting quarterback.  Nonetheless, in the most typical 10-person standard league, here is how I think it breaks down.

 

Round 1: Running Back

This is obvious.  If you are in the top 6 you will get a great one, and if not you still have to take Trent Richardson or CJ Spiller or Alfred Morris and hope he can carry you.  Because even if you don’t love your first pick, forgoing a running back for a sexier receiver or quarterback is a recipe for disaster.

Round 2: Running Back

Once again, you just gotta do it.  For me, this is the most difficult pick since I have pick #24 and will probably have to choose between the likes of Montee Ball and David Wilson and Darren McFadden.  None of those guys are particularly reliable for a second overall pick, but once again I have realized you just have to suck it up and go for it.  Receivers and quarterbacks will be around later, but not running backs.  Plus, I am in just about the worst position possible at this spot, so chances are you will be able to get Frank Gore or Chris Johnson or someone here which is a must.

Round 3: Running Back

I know, I sound like a broken record.  At this point you may be tempted to go with an elite receiver, and I couldn’t necessarily argue with that depending on who falls.  You might even want to grab Jimmy Graham.  But I think in most situations – not every situation, just most – you’ll want to grab a third reliable running back.  RB injuries are so common and you still need a flex player anyway, so go for one more guy like Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush who can give you that solidity at the weakest position in fantasy football.

Round 4: Wide Receiver

Now it’s time.  Go for those sexy receivers because, while Calvin Johnson and AJ Green may be gone, there are still a ton of good ones left.  Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Jordy Nelson.  These will all probably be around and they are perfectly good #1 receivers.  You could also potentially get Gronk here and I wouldn’t argue, but me personally, I’m going to shore up the receiver position.

Round 5: Wide Receiver

Go get another one.  Depending on where you are, you might see Mike Wallace or Danny Amendola.  Dwayne Bowe could have a nice year with Alex Smith and Andy Reid.  At this point the elite tight ends are gone, and you’re better off getting one more sure receiver than reaching for a quarterback.

Round 6: Quarterback

I know.  It’s late.  The quarterback list is dwindling.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brady, Manning, Ryan, Cam all off the board.  But you’ve got an amazing core team at running back and receiver, and now you can get a near-elite quarterback to put the icing on the cake.  Matt Stafford and Andrew Luck are almost definitely available.  If someone reached for them, you can probably get RGIII or Russell Wilson or even Colin Kaepernick.  Any and all of these guys will fill out an already stacked roster quite nicely, so don’t worry about waiting.

Round 7: Wide Receiver

What? No tight end?  That’s right.  At this point, all the tight ends are painfully mediocre anyway.  Don’t waste a pick with which you could still get a really good bench receiver or even another running back on mediocrity.  Wait a while and get a couple lower-value tight ends with higher potential and less stability.  At this point you’re in it for the long haul, so might as well get Torrey Smith or someone like that while you still can.

Round 8: Wide Receiver/Running Back

I’m telling you, just wait.  It’s hard to do in the moment, but those tight ends you see slipping away aren’t worth it.  They’ll do fine, but you can get a later one that will be just as good, and might even play better.  Round 8 is usually about the point where the final decent, useful position players go.  Get one more for your bench because after this it’ll just be guessing games and waiver fodder.

Round 9: Tight End

Alright, finally time to get one.  Jared Cook maybe?  There are plenty of sleeper tight ends, and while they probably won’t break out too much, some of them are bound to reach levels of mediocrity.  Grab one you like and maybe another one later as a backup.  Once you give up on Jimmy Graham and Gronk, there is really no one else at the position that has good value because they are either overrated or unreliable.

Round 10: Defense

At this point, I like to get a top-5 defense that I feel I can rely on.  After this, you might want some backup running backs that you feel could replace an injury-prone starter at some point during the season.  Maybe a couple more receivers with some potential or another tight end and defense, and depending on who you got for quarterback you might want a backup as well.  Late rounds are all about value, so whoever falls to you just grab the best names you see.

And that does it for my draft strategy.  As I said, it’s not 100% comprehensive, and depends greatly on your position, number of teams, etc.  But no matter what league you play in, the logic behind these picks is the same, and if there’s one lesson I think most people should learn it’s don’t be afraid to wait because if there’s one bane of the fantasy football drafter it is the desperation pick.