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Friday, July 19, 2013

Step 3 to Winning Fantasy: The Easiest Step

    Readers are easily lured in when I tell them something is going to be easy.  I like that.  I promise this step will be easy, for the most part.  If you've gotten to this point you hopefully read my first two posts.  If not, here are the links: http://firstandfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-secret-to-winning-fantasy-football.htmlhttp://firstandfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/07/step-2-for-winning-fantasy-those-sexy.html.  This step will help you to understand when it is appropriate to pick, or reach for, a tight end.  There are two great TEs, three upper-middle class, and then a lot of common folk.  I have to agree with the Talented Mr. Roto here, I either want to pick my TE first, or last.  As I've mentioned before, you want to have as many advantages as you can in fantasy football.  Tight end offers perhaps the biggest advantage week to week if you grab the right guy.  Let's check it out.



Level 1 (Why are these guys not just considered receivers?)
    Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.  Alright, this part is super easy.  Jimmy Graham got his head coach back and is going to continue being a stud.  This man is a giant.  There is no way to cover him, and you will win the battle at this position every week if you draft him.  Where do you draft him you might ask?  There are two scenarios: 1) You could only snag a top tier RB in the first round (you had picks 1,2, or 3), and now the rest are all gone.  Those receivers look awfully sexy, but stop looking at them!  Pick Jimmy Graham late in the second round.  The advantage he gives you is so much greater than say a Demaryius Thomas.  2) He somehow falls into the third round.  Wow, you are feeling lucky.  If you managed to get your two RBs AND this guy fell into the third you won your league.  Boom.  Other than those two scenarios I don't draft him.  Do not reach early in the second round.  Alright, what about Gronk?  The frat star is coming off four offseason surgeries.  I do not care.  Having Gronk for 10+ weeks is more than worth the risk.  Where should you risk?  The fourth round and on.  I usually don't advocate risks, but he is better than Graham when healthy, and I see no reason why he won't eventually be healthy.  He may miss the first two weeks, but there are plenty of guys to sub until then.  Who says big can't be beautiful?  

Level 2 (Tempting, but only slightly better than the peasants)
    Tony Gonzales, Jason Witten, and Vernon Davis.  Please, just pass on these guys.  Snag a couple more receivers.  These guys will hardly score more points than the peasants, and they cost you a lot higher pick.  Someone will end up with these guys.  Hell, they might even drop to the point where it makes sense to take them.  But I would rather have level 7 receivers and up than any of these guys.  They aren't even sexy!  Just move along and pretend they've wronged you in some way.

Level 3 (Literally everyone else)
   Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph, Owen Daniels, Greg Olsen, Antonio Gates, Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Pettigrew, Martellus Bennett, etc.  There is no discernible difference between these guys.  Some of them are bigger names, a la Finley, but they are all going to give you very similar numbers.  Personally, if I, nay when I, pick one of these guys, I'm trying to snag Daniels or Olsen.  Both have proven themselves incredibly consistent over the years.  If none of these guys look good to you just play the waiver wire game.  Look for matchups against small corners or weak secondaries in general.  It'll work.  As long as you follow steps 1 and 2 that is.  

    There it is.  Step 3 really was easy!  Both for me to write and for you to follow!  There is a whole lot of sameness at this position, and odds are you won't end up with one of the studs.  Do not be discouraged.  That just means you have two awesome RBs and they have Reggie Bush as their number 2.  Sucks to be them right?  Now laugh and hope Jimmy Graham doesn't find you in person after you pass on him. 

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