What's Luck Got to do with It?

    If you read my first post, Getting Things Started, you remember that I believe fantasy football is at least 50% luck.  We have little to no control over what actually happens on a given Sunday.  All we can do is start who we think will have the best days.  I wanted to write a short post here to prove to y'all that the best team will not always win.  The luckiest team however, will always win.  I'm going to present you with two teams and I can guarantee one team will look way better to you.  You will crave and wish you could possess such a wonderful team.  Yet, when the championship was on the line, this team of supposed studs fell short to a rag tag team of free agents and surprises.

Alright, without further ado, here are the two teams for you to consider:

Team 1                                                  Team 2

QB: Russell Wilson                                 QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Adrian Peterson                               RB: Jamaal Charles
RB: Bernard Pierce                                 RB: Doug Martin
WR: Marques Colston                            WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Justin Blackmon                              WR: Vincent Jackson
TE: Aaron Hernandez                              TE: Jason Witten
Flex: Jeremy Maclin                                 Flex: Victor Cruz
D: Bears                                                  D: Texans
K: Stephen Gostkowski                           K: Matt Bryant

Alright, this matchup occured in week 17, which explains Bernard Pierce at RB2 instead of Ray Rice.  I can give Team 1 3 advantages (1 for AP, 1 for Wilson, .5 for Hernandez, and .5 for Bears), which means Team 2 cruises to 5 advantages(1 for Martin, 1 for Megatron, 1 for VJax, 1 for Cruz, .5 for Witten, and .5 for Texans).  I'm giving a wash to the kicker, because it's impossible to say who will have a better week in terms of kickers.  I would do almost anything for Team 2 this year.  They followed my drafting strategy perfectly, somehow snatching two top 3 levels RBs, VJax and Cruz as WR1 and WR2, and SOMEHOW also has Megatron.  Unreal.  But any player can have a bad week, even if it's in the championship of fantasy.  In Team 2's case, lots of his players had a bad week.  Team 2 got outscored 120-80.  To this day I am shocked.  Sure AP had a HUGE week, but double digits from all three receivers and the Bears' D always helps.  Wilson was picked up THAT WEEK (so was Blackmon) on waivers, and proceeded to put up 25 points.  Luck.  So much luck.  Credit with foresight and a feeling of success when everything goes right?  Definitely.  Does Team 1's owner deserve credit?  Maybe like 15% percent of the credit.  It just proves that even if you draft the perfect team, you won't win if lady luck doesn't smile your way.  Is that always fun?  Absolutely not.  If I didn't go undefeated with Team 2 I'd be angry.  Look how stacked it is!  But I'd rather be lucky than talented, if only because there isn't much room for talent in fantasy.  It's kind of like coaching toddlers.  The best you can do is put who you think is competent in the correct positions, and then hope they don't just sit there and pick their nose.  With no idea what to expect, you just hope that you put the right guys in at the right time.  I love fantasy.  I also love being lucky.  Suck it Team 2!