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Wednesday, July 17, 2013

AFC South Preview

The AFC South.  The easiest division in football.  That’s right.  It used to be the NFC West, but all of a sudden the 49ers and Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders.  Perhaps the AFC West? The Broncos are preseason favorites and the Chiefs are looking up as well.  Even in the AFC East, the Dolphins are getting more dangerous, the Bills have C.J. Spiller, and the Patriots suddenly have some decent competition.  The AFC South is finally, undoubtedly the weakest division in football.  However, as we look at an ever-aging, ever-weakening AFC in general that includes Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore all having lost or getting ready to lose key franchise, Hall of Fame players, perhaps the two most exciting young power houses coming up in the conference are Houston and Indianapolis.  So, let’s get to it.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars
            Tough call here between the Titans and Jaguars, but I’m going with Jacksonville, as usual, to bring up the rear.  The tough part is that they have some solid young talent.  Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon could potentially be a killer receiving duo with solid backups like Jordan Shipley and new acquisition Mohamed Massaquoi.  MJD, assuming he’s healthy, is obviously one of the better backs in the league and Justin Forsett is no joke.  The defense and O-line have improved and there really is a lot to like about this team.  But you just can not win in the NFL without consistent quarterback play and Blaine Gabbert is a bottom dweller.  As long as he’s bottom 5 in the league in quarterback rating, the Jags will be bottom 5 in the win department.

3. Tennessee Titans
            The Titans honestly don’t have as good of an overall roster as the Jaguars, but Jake Locker combined with CJ2K and a (hopefully) improved offensive line will give them enough to snag 3rd place I think.  They have an alright receiving corps and it could even be good if Kenny Britt and others stay healthy, but that is a big if based on recent track records.  Shonn Greene could be a good fit as a backup, big goal-line guy, and Delanie Walker is a pretty good get as well after losing Jared Cook.  A lot rides on the offensive line for this team, and if they are elite then we might see a resurgence from Chris Johnson and the Titans could sniff .500.  If not, though, it might be another tough season in Tennessee.

2. Houston Texans
            This one comes down to schedule, and expectation.  The Texans are an amazingly talented team with the likes of Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, J.J. Watt, and others.  Matt Schaub isn’t elite but he is solid, although he could really use a second receiver at some point, as could Johnson.  Ed Reed is a scary man and that defense is once again very intimidating.  All in all, the Texans are about as dangerous as they were last year (which is quite dangerous) and maybe even a little more so.  Nonetheless, this franchise has never shown the ability to play well for a full season, and I think even Houston fans are probably tired of putting too much preseason faith in this club.  Could they win the division? Yes, easily.  But they always seem to struggle no matter how good they look on paper, and while I think they will certainly make the playoffs as a wild card, they simply haven’t shown the consistency that was shown last year by my number one team…

1. Indianapolis Colts

            Yes, I am a Colts fan.  But hear me out.  When I said last season that, looking at their schedule, the Colts could win 11 games with Lady Luck, and with only Andrew Luck they were looking good for 9 or 10, everyone laughed.  Well we all know how that turned out, and the one thing the Colts have that is very, very valuable in the NFL is that they win games they should win.  They don’t pull a Baltimore Ravens and lose to the Browns, or have a Houston Texan meltdown.  Maybe one year is too small a sample size, but I think Andrew Luck as a leader and the culture of the organization is one that breeds success.  The Colts will get better defensively and Ahmad Bradshaw, if healthy, could be their best rusher since Edge.  The AFC is incredibly weak, and if the Colts were in the NFC they probably wouldn’t make the playoffs.  But the Texans constantly underperform, so if Indy can just take care of business then they should be able to win 11 or 12 games against average or weak opponents.  This division race comes down to two games: the Colts get the Dolphins at home and Bengals on the road, while Houston has to go to Baltimore and host New England.  If the Colts can win those two and split the series with the Texans, Houston’s annual underachievement complex will ensure that the division title returns to Indy.

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